Strategy

Global economy

• Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.3% in 2026, before easing to 3.2% in 2027 and further moderating to 3.1% by 2031.
• Global inflation is projected to decline to 3.0% by 2027.
• High prices remain a major global challenge and continue to put pressure on household real incomes.
• Amid easing inflation, central banks are expected to keep lowering interest rates.
• Moderate global growth and excess oil supply will constrain prices in global commodity markets.
• US economic growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2026, compared with 1.9% in 2025, supported by looser monetary and fiscal policy. A weakening labour market will slow down growth momentum.
• China’s annual GDP growth will slow down to 3.3% by 2029 due to the real estate crisis, population ageing and declining demographic growth.
• India’s economy will expand (projected 7% average annual growth) driven by increasing consumption amid population growth and significant government investments.
• Asian and African economies will materially outpace Europe and America in growth rates.
• High market uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• Growth in global merchandise trade is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2026 following the rebound seen in 2025.

Russian economy

• Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by 1–1.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
• Long‑term potential GDP growth is forecast in the range of 1–2%.
• The defence sector continues to be the key driver of economic growth.
• Western sanctions pressure is expected to persist.
• Investment activity in 2026 is projected at 0.5–1.5% (against a high 2025 base) before accelerating to 4% thereafter.
• Inflation will gradually decline throughout 2026 and 2027. Due to the tight monetary policy and higher than expected year‑end inflation in 2025, the inflation rate is anticipated to reach 5.6% in 2026. Inflation is expected to decline to 4% by 2028.
• Falling oil prices increase the risks associated with weaker export market conditions and heighten pressure on Russia’s budget revenues.
• An increase in Russian export volumes in 2025 with sustained growth and strengthening of export positions in subsequent periods is expected to be driven by expansion of exports into Global South markets and deeper cooperation with BRICS countries amid Western restrictions.
• The baseline scenario of the Bank of Russia assumes an average key interest rate of 13.5–14.5% per annum in 2026, which will contribute to continuously tight monetary conditions.
• In 2026, foreign economic activity will focus on the International Cooperation and Export national project, support for non‑commodity exports, and the development of independent payment systems.

Long‑term trends in container logistics

• Continued expansion of intermodal chain assets by Russian companies in pursuit of full door‑to‑door route control.
• New logistics hubs emerging in Russia–China border areas.
• Growing multimodal transport share.
• Continued heavy utilisation of eastbound logistics infrastructure.
• Rising e‑commerce shipment volumes.
• Development and use of artificial intelligence (AI) to improve operating efficiency and competitiveness.
• Deployment of proprietary IT solutions for deeper customer integration.
• Implementation of digital solutions and automation in transport and warehouse logistics. Growing influence of digital platforms and logistics marketplaces.
• Containerisation of cargoes, including bulk and liquid freight such as grain, fertilisers, flexitanks, etc.
• Development of dry port networks to shift cargo handling away from overloaded seaports.
• Expansion of transport and logistics hubs to support double‑stack container trains and additional services.
• Transition to settlements in national currencies for logistics and international freight services.
• Growth in the temperature‑controlled transport segment to support food and pharmaceutical exports.
• The Red Sea crisis temporarily absorbed excess global shipping capacity in 2024–2025; however, in 2026–2027, shipping lines are expected to reduce vessel speeds to artificially absorb up to 10% of fleet oversupply. Against this backdrop, demand for feeder vessels will remain consistently high, as rerouting around bottlenecks and the development of last‑mile delivery have already driven a 140% increase in rates for small‑capacity vessels (one thousand TEU).
• The transition to dual‑fuel vessels continues to accelerate driven by IMO regulations and EU carbon taxes. Such vessels account for 73% of all new capacity orders (9.09 million TEU).
• Up to 70% of US economic growth in 2025 was driven by investment in AI. The container transportation, electronics and semiconductor sectors became directly dependent on this trend. Any slowdown in the AI industry could trigger a sharp decline in demand for hi‑tech cargo shipping, affecting the most profitable Asia–US routes.
• Major shipping alliances continue to control more than 60% of the global container market, while the top 10 container operators account for 84% of global container fleet capacity.

Global container market

• Global container transportation volumes are projected to grow by ca. 2.5–3.5% in 2026.
• Global implementation of ESG strategies will place additional pressure on regional carriers lacking sufficient resources to transition to greener container vessels and pay carbon taxes.
• The timeline for a full resumption of transit through the Suez Canal remains uncertain, although experts do not rule out continued tensions until the end of 2026. Should vessels return to the Suez Canal route, shorter transit times would release approximately 10% of global vessel demand, exacerbating excess effective throughput capacity.
• Global fleet capacity is projected to increase by 3.6–5% in 2026, significantly outpacing demand growth of only 1.5–3%.
• The global order book for new vessels totals 12.43 million TEU through to 2030. The main pressure point is expected in 2028, when deliveries will reach a historical peak of almost 5 million TEU and fleet growth may again exceed 7%.
• Freight rates are expected to decline sharply in 2026, with average spot rates falling by 25% (close to pre‑pandemic levels), while long‑term contract rates may decrease by 10–12% compared to 2025.
• High rates for time‑chartered vessels will begin correcting downwards in 2026, as shipping lines will seek to reduce reliance on chartered tonnage in favour of their own newly delivered large‑capacity vessels.

Russian container market

• Further moderate growth of container transportation at around 2–3% annually is projected through 2030.
• Export growth will remain the primary driver, supported by rising trade with the Global South nations (China, India, Southeast Asia, Africa), particularly in fertilisers, agricultural and timber products.
• The import‑export imbalance will drive domestic shipping growth.
• Transit volumes will largely depend on Belarusian cargo flows, while ongoing Red Sea tensions will sustain interest in overland transit via the Trans‑Siberian Railway.
• Increasing pressure on infrastructure in eastern Russia remains the primary constraint to export growth, as modernisation of the eastern railway (Baikal–Amur Mainline and Trans‑Siberian Railway) continues to lag behind sharply rising cargo volumes and insufficient border crossing capacity.
• Existing infrastructure limitations and sanctions will urge logistics companies and freight owners to adopt new transport technologies.
• Further recovery and growth in container shipments to the northwest are anticipated.
• Transit from Belarus to CIS countries via Russia will keep growing (key cargoes: mineral fertilisers, timber, and wood products).
• New tariff regulations include hikes of empty container movement rates: +5% from 1 January 2026 and another +5% from 1 January 2027 (with hikes included in the indexed base).
• From 1 September 2026, mandatory electronic transport bills of lading will come into force in Russia, potentially increasing the operating costs of companies by 15–17% during the adaptation phase.